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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found slightly higher median expectations for inflation over the next year, nominal income growth and spending growth. Respondents also reported a weaker economic growth outlook and higher expected unemployment; longer-term inflation expectations and expected mortgage rates were unchanged.
The European Central Bank’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey showed households expecting slightly higher inflation over the next year and stronger nominal spending growth, but a weaker economic outlook and higher unemployment. The results offer a monthly reading of consumer expectations across 11 euro area countries and inform the ECB’s policy analysis, though they do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies.
Median inflation perceived over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% in September, from 3.5% in August. Median inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased to 3.1% from 3.0%. Expectations further ahead did not change: the median remained 2.9% for three years ahead and 2.5% for five years ahead.
Respondents’ expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.1% from 1.0%. Expected nominal spending growth increased to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous year rose to 5.3% from 5.2%. These are nominal measures and do not, by themselves, show how much consumers’ purchasing power changed.
The survey’s outlook indicators weakened for growth and employment. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3% from 11.0%. Consumers expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the coming year, up from 3.4%; expected mortgage rates stayed at 4.9%.
Household outlook points in mixed directions
The results present a mixed picture for households and policymakers. Slightly higher near-term inflation expectations, together with increased expected spending growth, suggest consumers anticipate continued price pressures and nominal outlays. At the same time, the lower growth expectation and higher expected unemployment rate indicate greater concern about the economic outlook.
These figures are survey expectations, not forecasts or observed outcomes. They cannot establish what inflation, growth or unemployment will actually be. Still, changes in expectations can help the ECB assess how households perceive economic conditions alongside other data used in policy analysis.
The distribution across income groups also points to different experiences. Respondents in the lowest income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, and they anticipated a higher unemployment rate than those in the highest quintile. The survey therefore records not only an overall euro area view but differences among household groups that may matter for understanding the effects of prices and labour-market risks.
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How the monthly ECB survey works
The ECB said the September survey’s fieldwork took place between 27 August and 28 September 2026. The monthly online survey covers around 19,000 adults in Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. Its results complement other sources used by the central bank.
Unless otherwise stated, the release’s statistics refer to the 2% winsorised mean, a calculation method described in the ECB’s guide to aggregate statistics. The inflation figures highlighted in the release include medians. The ECB also said uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months rose slightly and remained above its level before the conflict in the Middle East began.
The release reported persistent differences by age and income. Younger respondents, aged 18 to 34, continued to give lower inflation perceptions and expectations than respondents aged 35 to 70. The ECB makes underlying microdata available through the survey’s data and methodological information page.
“Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased in September to -1.5%, from -1.2% in August.”
— European Central Bank
Survey readings are not realized outcomes
The survey does not show whether households’ expectations will match future economic results. It records responses during a fieldwork period spanning late August and most of September, rather than continuously measuring every household or establishing why expectations changed.
The ECB said uncertainty around next-year inflation expectations increased slightly, but the release does not quantify that change in the headline summary. It also does not specify in the supplied results how much credit access perceptions shifted: the net share reporting tighter access, and the net share expecting tighter conditions, both increased compared with August.
Income-group and age differences are survey findings; the release does not establish their causes. The results also do not state how any single factor, including the Middle East conflict, affected respondents’ answers.
October results due in November
The ECB has scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. That release will provide the next monthly comparison for consumer inflation, spending, growth, employment, housing and credit expectations.
Until then, the September results remain a snapshot from the stated fieldwork period. Readers can consult the ECB’s data portal and survey website for country-level aggregate results and methodological information; the ECB says underlying microdata are also available.
Key Questions
What did the ECB’s September 2026 survey find about inflation?
Median inflation perceived over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%. Median expectations for the next 12 months increased to 3.1% from 3.0%, while expectations three and five years ahead stayed at 2.9% and 2.5%.
Did respondents expect the euro area economy to improve?
No. Their expectation for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2% in August. This is a survey measure of expectations, not a report of realized economic growth.
What did consumers expect for unemployment?
The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Respondents’ perceived current rate was 10.6%, according to the ECB release.
When will the next survey results be published?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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